Track Record

Every forecast this tool has made, dated and graded — hit, partial, miss, or still open. This grades the tool's own predictions, not the sources' consistency (see Reversals for that).

Migration note: the live Grok-hosted site already has real, dated forecasts on the record. Import them here (see spec §11 open decisions) rather than starting this list over from zero — the continuity of already-open predictions is part of what makes this page credible.

• Coverage will shift from the cautious, uncertain 'hijacking'/'altercation' framing toward confirmed 'terrorist attack' language as UAE and Israeli officials formalize the investigation findings, with 'hijacking' retained mainly in historical/recap references.

  Open

  Watching for hijacking to become terrorist attack / attempted terrorist attack / terror attack

  How this gets graded: Check whether major outlets (Guardian, NYT, BBC, Jerusalem Post) predominantly use 'terrorist attack' or equivalent phrasing to describe the incident in coverage 2-8 weeks after the event, rather than 'hijacking'.

  Re: Hijacking ruled out as flydubai flight to Tel Aviv lands at Saudi airport · made 10/7/2026 · window closes 11/6/2026

• As AfD moves from electoral wins toward actual governing power (junior coalition partner or state government control), coverage will shift from purely alarmist framing ('extremist', 'far-right shock') toward normalized political vocabulary treating it as a routine governing/opposition actor, e.g. 'coalition partner' or 'mainstream'.

  Hit

  Watching for extremist to become governing party / mainstream / legitimate opposition / coalition partner

  How this gets graded: Check whether mainstream outlets (NYT, BBC, Washington Post, FT) begin describing AfD with normalizing terms like 'mainstream', 'governing party', or 'coalition partner' rather than solely 'far-right' or 'extremist', as the party moves closer to actual governing power in German states.

  Re: שר החוץ הפולני: ניצחון מפלגת הימין הקיצוני בגרמניה הוא "סימן מדאיג" · made 9/9/2026 · window closes 10/24/2026 · normalization cascade

  "mainstream" appeared in coverage published after the forecast.

• Coverage will move away from substantive engagement with the documentary's evidence and instead center on the personal/political attack on the filmmakers, with 'treason' and calls to revoke citizenship becoming the dominant frame rather than 'mass killing of Gaza civilians'.

  Open

  Watching for mass killings of Gaza civilians to become act of treason / revoke citizenships

  How this gets graded: Check whether subsequent headlines/leads about NAZA foreground 'treason'/'revoke citizenship' language rather than the substantive killing allegations.

  Re: Secret systems used by Israel in mass killings of Gaza civilians revealed in new · made 9/14/2026 · window closes 10/14/2026 · fragmentation

• Coverage will keep framing a full Houthi closure of Bab al-Mandeb as imminent/'closing in' without it actually being confirmed as closed, with repeated warnings of an approaching chokehold rather than resolution.

  Open

  Watching for closing in on strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait to become closing in on the strait / on the verge of controlling / poised to close the strait / threatens to close the strait

  How this gets graded: Check whether later coverage (30-45 days out) still uses imminence language like 'closing in on', 'poised to', or 'threatens to close' the strait rather than reporting an actual closure.

  Re: תפנית דרמטית בתימן: החות'ים כבשו עיר ליד באב אל-מנדב, עלולים לסגור את המצר · made 9/10/2026 · window closes 10/10/2026 · perpetual imminence

• Coverage will continue to treat each new explosion report (Kharg, Hormuz, Jask, Qeshm/Sirik) as a separate, unexplained, isolated incident rather than linking them into a pattern; expect an official Iranian denial or 'unclear cause' framing to appear rather than any acknowledgment of a coordinated campaign.

  Open

  Watching for פיצוצים to become מקור הפיצוצים לא ידוע / לא ברור מקור הפיצוץ / אין קשר בין האירועים / רעש סוני

  How this gets graded: Check whether subsequent Israeli/Iranian coverage of new explosion reports near Kharg/Hormuz/Jask explicitly denies a link between incidents or attributes them to unclear/unrelated causes rather than framing them as part of a series.

  Re: דיווח איראני על הדי פיצוצים באזור האי חארג · made 9/9/2026 · window closes 10/9/2026 · atomization

• Netanyahu's blanket denial ('absolute lies'/'malicious blood libel') and threat to sue Haaretz will give way to a narrower, more technical dispute (e.g. disputing the specificity or timing of the warning, or claiming it did not name Hamas/Sinwar directly) as more corroborating details emerge from Bennett, Egypt, and intelligence sources.

  Open

  Watching for עלילה מרושעת to become לא היה מדובר בהתרעה קונקרטית / לא צוין חמאס במפורש / התרעה כללית ולא ספציפית

  How this gets graded: Check whether Netanyahu's office or allied spokespeople shift from a total denial framing ('lies'/'fabrication') to a narrower technical dispute framing (e.g. disputing specificity of the warning) in subsequent statements over the following weeks.

  Re: "סינוואר מתכנן רעידת אדמה": "ההתרעה המפורשת" שקיבל נתניהו, ימים לפני 7/10 · made 9/9/2026 · window closes 10/9/2026 · credibility drain

• As the UK/France/Canada settlement trade ban proceeds, coverage will fragment along outlet and national lines rather than converge: pro-settlement Israeli/Jewish outlets will increasingly frame the measure as antisemitic or as a 'boycott of Israel' itself, while mainstream Western outlets will continue citing 'ethnic cleansing' as the justification, and some allies (like Australia) will be reported as explicitly declining to join, preventing a unified international response.

  Open

  Watching for sanctions to become boycott of Israel / antisemitic / stopped short of joining

  How this gets graded: Check whether later coverage of the UK/France/Canada settlement sanctions episode uses phrases like 'boycott of Israel', 'antisemitic', or 'stopped short of joining' to describe splits among allies or interpretive frames.

  Re: Smotrich calls for expulsion of UK ambassador after 'Post' report of planned set · made 9/9/2026 · window closes 10/9/2026 · fragmentation

• Iran will continue issuing rhetorical threats of "severe consequences" against additional third-party actors (beyond South Korea) operating in the Gulf/Strait of Hormuz, without these threats translating into a sustained closure or an actual attack on the newly-named target within the forecast window.

  Open

  Watching for השלכות חמורות to become השלכות חמורות / serious consequences / severe consequences

  How this gets graded: Check subsequent Hebrew/English coverage of Iran-Gulf shipping disputes for repeated use of the phrase "השלכות חמורות"/"severe consequences" attached to a new named country or actor, without a corresponding confirmed strike on that actor's vessels.

  Re: איראן: לפעילות דרום קוריאה במפרץ ובמצר הורמוז יהיו "השלכות חמורות" · made 9/9/2026 · window closes 10/9/2026 · perpetual imminence

• The framing of Netanyahu 'ignoring' the Likud court's deadline order will give way to coverage describing the court's authority as effectively defunct or its rulings as non-binding, once Netanyahu completes the list without consequence.

  Open

  Watching for מתעלם to become בית הדין נכנע / החלטת בית הדין בטלה / בית הדין חסר סמכות

  How this gets graded: Check whether Hebrew coverage of the Likud tribunal describes it as lacking authority, overridden, or its ruling voided, rather than continuing to say Netanyahu is merely 'ignoring' its order.

  Re: בית הדין של הליכוד הורה לנתניהו: פרסם את השריונים שלך תוך שעתיים · made 9/9/2026 · window closes 9/30/2026 · credibility drain